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San Diego Market: Supply Higher Than Demand

There has been much concern from both property buyers and sellers in San Diego over the past eight months during the market’s “cooling” period. Emmet Pierce from The San Diego Union Tribune wrote an article July 20, 2006, “S.D. real estate concerns Fannie Mae,” that explains why the market is currently more of a buyers market.

“There is no question that the San Diego housing market has slowed. Home price gains . . . are certainly down from their peak and perhaps will fall.” Fannie Mae Chief Economist David Berson said July 19th.

Berson praised the San Diego for its past price gains, continued to express his worries about the future of the San Diego market. “We view it with some trepidation. It is one of the areas we are concerned about.”

Then the focus was shifted directly to the condominium market in San Diego. “Berson said the condo market here is at risk ‘because the supply has gone up dramatically.’ There have been ‘lots of condo conversions. The investor share probably has been far more active in the condo market.’”

Since the supply is much greater than the demand, condo buyers will be able to wait until sellers are forced to sell low.

Investors favor condos because they are easier to sell quickly. “Condos are far more commodity-like than single-family homes,” Berson said.

“New homes sales this year will fall by 9 to 10 percent. . . . Existing home sales, we think they will fall this year by about 7 to 9 percent,” Berson said.

“In June, San Diego County experienced its first year-over-year price decline in a decade. It was the 24th consecutive month of year-over-year decline in sales.”

To further illustrate that the San Diego housing market is currently in a downfall, yesterday the “Commerce Department reported that the home construction fell by 5.3 percent in June.”

San Diego is not alone in this market downfall. Last year, home sales across the country rose by about 11 percent. By this year’s end, home sales will fall by about 3 percent.

“In recent years, housing has been one of the major forces in raising the economy,” Michael Carliner, an economist with the National Association of Home Builders, said. “For the time being, economic growth “will have to come from other sectors, like business investment.”

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